19124774

Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/19124774

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Predicate	Object
rdf:type	pubmed:Citation
lifeskim:mentions	umls-concept:C0040223, umls-concept:C0333051, umls-concept:C2004237
pubmed:issue	3
pubmed:dateCreated	2009-1-21
pubmed:abstractText	Ecological regime shifts are large, abrupt, long-lasting changes in ecosystems that often have considerable impacts on human economies and societies. Avoiding unintentional regime shifts is widely regarded as desirable, but prediction of ecological regime shifts is notoriously difficult. Recent research indicates that changes in ecological time series (e.g., increased variability and autocorrelation) could potentially serve as early warning indicators of impending shifts. A critical question, however, is whether such indicators provide sufficient warning to adapt management to avert regime shifts. We examine this question using a fisheries model, with regime shifts driven by angling (amenable to rapid reduction) or shoreline development (only gradual restoration is possible). The model represents key features of a broad class of ecological regime shifts. We find that if drivers can only be manipulated gradually management action is needed substantially before a regime shift to avert it; if drivers can be rapidly altered aversive action may be delayed until a shift is underway. Large increases in the indicators only occur once a regime shift is initiated, often too late for management to avert a shift. To improve usefulness in averting regime shifts, we suggest that research focus on defining critical indicator levels rather than detecting change in the indicators. Ideally, critical indicator levels should be related to switches in ecosystem attractors; we present a new spectral density ratio indicator to this end. Averting ecological regime shifts is also dependent on developing policy processes that enable society to respond more rapidly to information about impending regime shifts.
pubmed:commentsCorrections	http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-11474098, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-11595939, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-15448261, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-16701224, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-16958897, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-17120544, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-17479460, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-17588923, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-18021242, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-18279354, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-18308425, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/19124774-18787119
pubmed:language	eng
pubmed:journal	http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/journal/7505876
pubmed:citationSubset	IM
pubmed:status	MEDLINE
pubmed:month	Jan
pubmed:issn	1091-6490
pubmed:author	pubmed-author:BiggsReinetteR, pubmed-author:BrockWilliam AWA, pubmed-author:CarpenterStephen RSR
pubmed:issnType	Electronic
pubmed:day	20
pubmed:volume	106
pubmed:owner	NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete	Y
pubmed:pagination	826-31
pubmed:dateRevised	2009-11-18
pubmed:meshHeading	pubmed-meshheading:19124774-Adaptation, Physiological, pubmed-meshheading:19124774-Ecosystem, pubmed-meshheading:19124774-Time Factors
pubmed:year	2009
pubmed:articleTitle	Turning back from the brink: detecting an impending regime shift in time to avert it.
pubmed:affiliation	Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA. oonsie.biggs@stockholmresilience.su.se
pubmed:publicationType	Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S., Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't