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pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:abstractTextFuture changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June-August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June-August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June-August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation. We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO2. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:authorpubmed-author:CollinsMatMlld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:authorpubmed-author:GoodPeterPlld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:authorpubmed-author:LoweJason AJAlld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:authorpubmed-author:Moufouma-Okia...lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:pagination1761-6lld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:dateRevised2009-11-18lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:articleTitleAn objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change.lld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:affiliationMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK. peter.good@metoffice.gov.uklld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:publicationTypeJournal Articlelld:pubmed
pubmed-article:18267909pubmed:publicationTypeResearch Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.lld:pubmed
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