Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/18267909
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Predicate | Object |
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rdf:type | |
lifeskim:mentions | |
pubmed:issue |
1498
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pubmed:dateCreated |
2008-5-20
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pubmed:abstractText |
Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June-August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June-August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June-August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation. We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO2. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.
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pubmed:commentsCorrections | |
pubmed:language |
eng
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pubmed:journal | |
pubmed:citationSubset |
IM
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pubmed:status |
MEDLINE
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pubmed:month |
May
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pubmed:issn |
0962-8436
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pubmed:author | |
pubmed:issnType |
Print
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pubmed:day |
27
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pubmed:volume |
363
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pubmed:owner |
NLM
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pubmed:authorsComplete |
Y
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pubmed:pagination |
1761-6
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pubmed:dateRevised |
2009-11-18
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pubmed:meshHeading |
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Atlantic Ocean,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Conservation of Natural Resources,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Greenhouse Effect,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Models, Theoretical,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Rain,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Seasons,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Temperature,
pubmed-meshheading:18267909-Tropical Climate
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pubmed:year |
2008
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pubmed:articleTitle |
An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change.
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pubmed:affiliation |
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK. peter.good@metoffice.gov.uk
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pubmed:publicationType |
Journal Article,
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.,
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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