Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
1498
pubmed:dateCreated
2008-5-20
pubmed:abstractText
Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June-August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June-August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June-August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation. We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO2. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.
pubmed:commentsCorrections
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
May
pubmed:issn
0962-8436
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:day
27
pubmed:volume
363
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
1761-6
pubmed:dateRevised
2009-11-18
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2008
pubmed:articleTitle
An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change.
pubmed:affiliation
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon EX1 3PB, UK. peter.good@metoffice.gov.uk
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S., Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't