|
rdf:type |
|
|
lifeskim:mentions |
|
|
pubmed:issue |
1603
|
|
pubmed:dateCreated |
2006-12-14
|
|
pubmed:abstractText |
Interest in understanding strain diversity and its impact on disease dynamics has grown over the past decade. Theoretical disease models of several co-circulating strains indicate that incomplete cross-immunity generates conditions for strain-cycling behaviour at the population level. However, there have been no quantitative analyses of disease time-series that are clear examples of theoretically expected strain cycling. Here, we analyse a 40-year (1966-2005) cholera time-series from Bangladesh to determine whether patterns evident in these data are compatible with serotype-cycling behaviour. A mathematical two-serotype model is capable of explaining the oscillations in case patterns when cross-immunity between the two serotypes, Inaba and Ogawa, is high. Further support that cholera's serotype-cycling arises from population-level immunity patterns is provided by calculations of time-varying effective reproductive rates. These results shed light on historically observed serotype dominance shifts and have important implications for cholera early warning systems.
|
|
pubmed:commentsCorrections |
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-10650003,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-10976073,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-11942531,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-12069878,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-12439588,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-13439157,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-1372980,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-14726583,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-15266387,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-1578191,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-16079845,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-4163924,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-4443613,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-4564735,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-4865453,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-5302303,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-5302327,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-5328492,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-6663207,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-7148820,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-8310293,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-9141191,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-9269738,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-9572737,
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/17015366-9892712
|
|
pubmed:language |
eng
|
|
pubmed:journal |
|
|
pubmed:citationSubset |
IM
|
|
pubmed:status |
MEDLINE
|
|
pubmed:month |
Nov
|
|
pubmed:issn |
0962-8452
|
|
pubmed:author |
|
|
pubmed:issnType |
Print
|
|
pubmed:day |
22
|
|
pubmed:volume |
273
|
|
pubmed:owner |
NLM
|
|
pubmed:authorsComplete |
Y
|
|
pubmed:pagination |
2879-86
|
|
pubmed:dateRevised |
2009-11-18
|
|
pubmed:meshHeading |
|
|
pubmed:year |
2006
|
|
pubmed:articleTitle |
Serotype cycles in cholera dynamics.
|
|
pubmed:affiliation |
The Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2019 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1048, USA. kkoelle@umich.edu
|
|
pubmed:publicationType |
Journal Article,
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.,
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't,
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
|
