Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
1556
pubmed:dateCreated
2004-12-13
pubmed:abstractText
We examine the dynamics of antigenically diverse infectious agents using a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics of arbitrary numbers of pathogen strains, interacting via cross-immunity, and in the presence of mutations generating new strains and stochastic extinctions of existing ones. Equilibrium dynamics fall into three classes depending on cross-immunity, transmissibility and host population size: systems where global extinction is likely, stable single-strain persistence, and multiple-strain persistence with stable diversity. Where multi-strain dynamics are stable, a diversity threshold region separates a low-prevalence, low-diversity region of parameter space from a high-diversity, high-prevalence region. The location of the threshold region is determined by the reproduction number of the pathogen and the intensity of cross-immunity, with the sharpness of the transition being determined by the manner in which immunity accrues with repeated infections. Host population size and cross-immunity are found to be the most decisive factors in determining pathogen diversity. While the model framework developed is simplified, we show that it can capture essential aspects of the complex evolutionary dynamics of pathogens such as influenza.
pubmed:commentsCorrections
http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-10616279, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-11286883, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-11393179, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-11942531, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-12439588, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-12660783, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-14726583, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-2376460, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-2746140, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-5965486, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-7568274, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-7967636, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-8153140, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-8310293, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-8597954, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-9269738, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-9572737, http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/commentcorrection/15590592-9652423
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
Dec
pubmed:issn
0962-8452
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:day
7
pubmed:volume
271
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
2431-8
pubmed:dateRevised
2010-11-18
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2004
pubmed:articleTitle
The impact of cross-immunity, mutation and stochastic extinction on pathogen diversity.
pubmed:affiliation
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, St Marys Campus, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK. l.aburaddad@imperial.ac.uk
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Comparative Study, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't