Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:dateCreated
2000-12-21
pubmed:abstractText
Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.
pubmed:grant
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:issn
0065-308X
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:volume
47
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
309-30
pubmed:dateRevised
2011-10-19
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2000
pubmed:articleTitle
Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health.
pubmed:affiliation
NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland 20771, USA.
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S., Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't