Linked Life Data

16079845

Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/16079845

Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
7051
pubmed:dateCreated
2005-8-4
pubmed:abstractText
Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year. Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity. Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain (El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods (over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods (under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
Aug
pubmed:issn
1476-4687
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Electronic
pubmed:day
4
pubmed:volume
436
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
696-700
pubmed:dateRevised
2006-11-15
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2005
pubmed:articleTitle
Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics.
pubmed:affiliation
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, 2045 Kraus Natural Science Building, University of Michigan, 830 North University Avenue, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109-1048, USA.
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S., Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S., Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural