Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
2
pubmed:dateCreated
2003-7-24
pubmed:abstractText
Mathematical models can be used as health policy tools and predictive tools. Here we review how mathematical models have been used both to predict the consequences of specific epidemic control strategies and to design epidemic control strategies. We review how models have been used to evaluate the potential impact on HIV epidemics of (i) combination antiretroviral therapies (ART) and (ii) imperfect vaccines. In particular, we discuss how models have been used to predict the potential effect of ART on incidence rates, and to predict the evolution of an epidemic of drug-resistant HIV. We also discuss, in detail, how mathematical models have been used to evaluate the potential impact of prophylactic, live-attenuated and therapeutic HIV vaccines. We show how HIV vaccine models can be used to evaluate the epidemic-level impact of vaccine efficacy, waning in vaccine-induced immunity, vaccination coverage level, and changes (increases or decreases) in risky behavior. We also discuss how mathematical models can be used to determine the levels of cross-immunity that vaccines will need to attain if they are to be used to control HIV epidemics in countries where more than one subtype is being transmitted.
pubmed:grant
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:chemical
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:issn
1139-6121
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:volume
5
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
113-25
pubmed:dateRevised
2007-11-14
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:articleTitle
Forecasting the future of HIV epidemics: the impact of antiretroviral therapies & imperfect vaccines.
pubmed:affiliation
AIDS Institute & Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1766, USA. sblower@mednet.ucla.edu
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S., Review, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't