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pubmed:abstractText |
Several countries have attempted to change human fertility through economic incentives. This paper presents simple mathematical models of the participation of couples in a locally funded program of economic incentives. The models take as a springboard China's one-child program. Localities with low per capita incentives attract few couples to the program, while localities with high incentives attract many couples at first, but the value of the benefits is then watered down. The models show that participation in the program may persistently oscillate or may decay to a stationary level. Which behavior occurs is determined by whether there are decreasing, constant, or increasing returns in the rates of participation in response to successive equal increments in the incentive offered, and by the extent to which prospective parents learn from experience with past oscillations in the incentives. The models raise many empirical questions about the dynamics of incentive programs.
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