Linked Life Data

12150848

Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/12150848

Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
8
pubmed:dateCreated
2002-8-1
pubmed:abstractText
Current combination antiretroviral therapies (ARV) are widely used to treat HIV. However drug-resistant strains of HIV have quickly evolved, and the level of risky behaviour has increased in certain communities. Hence, currently the overall impact that ARV will have on HIV epidemics remains unclear. We have used a mathematical model to predict whether the current therapies: are reducing the severity of HIV epidemics, and could even lead to eradication of a high-prevalence (30%) epidemic. We quantified the epidemic-level impact of ARV on reducing epidemic severity by deriving the basic reproduction number (R(0)(ARV)). R(0)(ARV) specifies the average number of new infections that one HIV case generates during his lifetime when ARV is available and ARV-resistant strains can evolve and be transmitted; if R(0)(ARV) is less than one epidemic eradication is possible. We estimated for the HIV epidemic in the San Francisco gay community (using uncertainty analysis), the present day value of R(0)(ARV), and the probability of epidemic eradication. We assumed a high usage of ARV and three behavioural assumptions: that risky sex would (1) decrease, (2) remain stable, or (3) increase. Our estimated values of R(0)(ARV) (median and interquartile range [IQR]) were: 0.90 (0.85-0.96) if risky sex decreases, 1.0 (0.94-1.05) if risky sex remains stable, and 1.16 (1.05-1.28) if risky sex increases. R(0)(ARV) decreased as the fraction of cases receiving treatment increased. The probability of epidemic eradication is high (p=0.85) if risky sex decreases, moderate (p=0.5) if levels of risky sex remain stable, and low (p=0.13) if risky sex increases. We conclude that ARV can function as an effective HIV-prevention tool, even with high levels of drug resistance and risky sex. Furthermore, even a high-prevalence HIV epidemic could be eradicated using current ARV.
pubmed:grant
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:chemical
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
Aug
pubmed:issn
1473-3099
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:volume
2
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
487-93
pubmed:dateRevised
2007-11-14
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2002
pubmed:articleTitle
Could widespread use of combination antiretroviral therapy eradicate HIV epidemics?
pubmed:affiliation
Departamento de Matemáticas, UAM-Iztapalapa and PIMAYC Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo, Atepehuacan, San Bartolo, Mexico.
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, P.H.S., Review, Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't