Linked Life Data

10787168

Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/10787168

Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
1443
pubmed:dateCreated
2000-6-27
pubmed:abstractText
We estimated and modelled how uncertainties in stochastic population dynamics and biases in parameter estimates affect the accuracy of the projections of a small island population of song sparrows which was enumerated every spring for 24 years. The estimate of the density regulation in a theta-logistic model (theta = 1.09 suggests that the dynamics are nearly logistic, with specific growth rate r1 = 0.99 and carrying capacity K = 41.54. The song sparrow population was strongly influenced by demographic (?igma2(d) = 0.66) and environmental (?igma2(d) = 0.41) stochasticity. Bootstrap replicates of the different parameters revealed that the uncertainties in the estimates of the specific growth rate r1 and the density regulation theta were larger than the uncertainties in the environmental variance sigma2(e) and the carrying capacity K. We introduce the concept of the population prediction interval (PPI), which is a stochastic interval which includes the unknown population size with probability (1 - alpha). The width of the PPI increased rapidly with time because of uncertainties in the estimates of density regulation as well as demographic and environmental variance in the stochastic population dynamics. Accepting a 10% probability of extinction within 100 years, neglecting uncertainties in the parameters will lead to a 33% overestimation of the time it takes for the extinction barrier (population size X = 1) to be included into the PPI. This study shows that ignoring uncertainties in population dynamics produces a substantial underestimation of the extinction risk.
pubmed:commentsCorrections
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
Mar
pubmed:issn
0962-8452
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:day
22
pubmed:volume
267
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
621-6
pubmed:dateRevised
2009-11-18
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2000
pubmed:articleTitle
Estimating the time to extinction in an island population of song sparrows.
pubmed:affiliation
Department of Zoology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim. bernt-erik.sather@chembio.ntnu.no
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S., Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't