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pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:issue11lld:pubmed
pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:dateCreated2006-11-29lld:pubmed
pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:abstractTextGlobal and regional projections of mortality and burden of disease by cause for the years 2000, 2010, and 2030 were published by Murray and Lopez in 1996 as part of the Global Burden of Disease project. These projections, which are based on 1990 data, continue to be widely quoted, although they are substantially outdated; in particular, they substantially underestimated the spread of HIV/AIDS. To address the widespread demand for information on likely future trends in global health, and thereby to support international health policy and priority setting, we have prepared new projections of mortality and burden of disease to 2030 starting from World Health Organization estimates of mortality and burden of disease for 2002. This paper describes the methods, assumptions, input data, and results.lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:authorpubmed-author:MathersColin...lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:dateRevised2009-11-18lld:pubmed
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pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:articleTitleProjections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030.lld:pubmed
pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:affiliationEvidence and Information for Policy Cluster, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. mathersc@who.intlld:pubmed
pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:publicationTypeJournal Articlelld:pubmed
pubmed-article:17132052pubmed:publicationTypeResearch Support, Non-U.S. Gov'tlld:pubmed
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