Linked Life Data

17569110

Source:http://linkedlifedata.com/resource/pubmed/id/17569110

Statements in which the resource exists as a subject.
PredicateObject
rdf:type
lifeskim:mentions
pubmed:issue
2
pubmed:dateCreated
2007-12-27
pubmed:abstractText
Identification of key factors associated with the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and quantification of this risk using multivariable prediction algorithms are among the major advances made in preventive cardiology and cardiovascular epidemiology in the 20th century. The ongoing discovery of new risk markers by scientists presents opportunities and challenges for statisticians and clinicians to evaluate these biomarkers and to develop new risk formulations that incorporate them. One of the key questions is how best to assess and quantify the improvement in risk prediction offered by these new models. Demonstration of a statistically significant association of a new biomarker with cardiovascular risk is not enough. Some researchers have advanced that the improvement in the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) should be the main criterion, whereas others argue that better measures of performance of prediction models are needed. In this paper, we address this question by introducing two new measures, one based on integrated sensitivity and specificity and the other on reclassification tables. These new measures offer incremental information over the AUC. We discuss the properties of these new measures and contrast them with the AUC. We also develop simple asymptotic tests of significance. We illustrate the use of these measures with an example from the Framingham Heart Study. We propose that scientists consider these types of measures in addition to the AUC when assessing the performance of newer biomarkers.
pubmed:grant
pubmed:commentsCorrections
pubmed:language
eng
pubmed:journal
pubmed:citationSubset
IM
pubmed:status
MEDLINE
pubmed:month
Jan
pubmed:issn
0277-6715
pubmed:author
pubmed:issnType
Print
pubmed:day
30
pubmed:volume
27
pubmed:owner
NLM
pubmed:authorsComplete
Y
pubmed:pagination
157-72; discussion 207-12
pubmed:dateRevised
2010-1-20
pubmed:meshHeading
pubmed:year
2008
pubmed:articleTitle
Evaluating the added predictive ability of a new marker: from area under the ROC curve to reclassification and beyond.
pubmed:affiliation
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Framingham Heart Study, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA. mpencina@bu.edu
pubmed:publicationType
Journal Article, Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural